2025 U.S Trucking Industry Guide

Supply-chain trucking is the backbone of U.S. freight, handling door-to-door transport that connects suppliers, factories, and customers. In 2024, trucks moved 72.7% of all U.S. freight tonnage and earned 76.9% of freight revenue. 

Volumes are projected to grow 1.6% in 2025, reaching nearly 14 billion tons by 2035. With unmatched first- and final-mile reach, trucking remains essential, and often the pressure point, of modern logistics. 

Below, explore 2025 industry data, cost drivers, compliance musts, and real-world case studies.

2025 State‑of‑the‑Industry Snapshot

Before cutting cost-per-mile or renegotiating contracts, you need a clear view of demand, capacity, and modal mix. Below is a consolidated data snapshot to align your ops and finance teams.

Latest Market Size & Growth

In 2024, trucks moved 11.27 billion tons, accounting for 72.7% of all U.S. freight, and earned $906 billion (76.9% of total freight revenue).

The ATA forecasts a 1.6% rebound in 2025 and 14 billion tons by 2035. Truckload rates are expected to grow 2.2% in 2025 and ≈5% YoY by Q4 as over-capacity eases.

Freight Mix by Mode

Trucking remains dominant:

• Truck: 72.7% (↑)

• Rail: 10.6% → 9.9% (↓)

• Air/Pipeline/Water: 16.7% (mixed)

  
  

Capacity & Utilization Trends

Cass Freight Index shows shipments down 4.0% YoY in May 2025, but rates up +0.6%, a signal that pricing power is returning.

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index rose from -2.56 to -0.21, showing capacity slowly tightening.

What This Means for You

Expect 3–5% cost inflation in 2025. Utilize ELD & HOS Compliance services & tools to stay ahead of regulations, and consider load recoveries to capitalize on lower overnight CPM rates.

Trucking Is the Backbone of Modern Supply Chains

Trucking is the most important thread that ties every stage of the supply chain together, from raw material pickup to final delivery, making it the most critical mode in modern freight logistics.

First‑ & Final‑Mile Reach

Over 80% of U.S. communities depend solely on trucks for freight. Even in large networks, trucks dominate “first 50-mile” moves, generating 30% of total truck VMT.

FHWA protects these last-mile links via Intermodal Connectors, recognizing that a single bottleneck can disrupt entire supply chains.

Dominant Share of Freight & Spend

In 2024, trucks carried 72.7% of domestic freight weight and earned 76.9% of revenue, more than all other modes combined.

ATA forecasts growth to ≈14 billion tons by 2035, while rail’s share declines below 10%.

Just‑in‑Time (JIT) Dependency

Trucking is essential to JIT operations. It enables same-day part delivery and pallet-level shipments, unlike rail’s 24+ hour dwell times or air’s limited volume and reach.

Flexibility & Resilience

Trucking offers unmatched door-to-door reach, fast transit (≈1.5 days/1,000 mi), and high reroute capacity.

AI-driven platforms now reduce empty miles by 10–15% and offer instant pricing, enhancing speed and adaptability.

Ongoing Innovation

Trucking continues to lead in:

• AI route optimization

• Electric HGV deployment (e.g., Amazon’s electric rigs)

• Autonomous pilot corridors (e.g., Atlas Energy in Texas)

  
  

What This Means for You

With three‑quarters of freight dollars flowing through trucking, negotiated line‑haul and accessorial terms dictate landed cost.

Carrier relationships drive cost control. Expect 3–5% CPM inflation in 2025. Shifting freight to Night Dispatch helps lock in lower line-haul rates and improve dock efficiency.

Top 7 Challenges & How Smart Fleets Solve Them

These seven challenges drive over 80% of cost variance in 2025 RFPs. Each includes real data plus countermeasures you can deploy in-house or through our 24/7 Night Dispatch program.

Driver Shortage

The gap: TL routes remain hardest hit, with ~78,000 open positions in 2025 (ATA).

Cost pressure: Fleets raised TL driver pay 10% in 2023–24 just to slow churn.

Smart playbook:

• Run quarterly stay-interviews; feed results to comp strategy.

• Offer night/relay shifts to cut time away from home.

• Upskill from yard to CDL seats via in-house academies (see Driver Consultations).

  
  

2. Rising Fuel Prices

Current rate: $3.775/gal (June 2025), up 20¢ in 3 weeks.

Impact: Fuel now makes up 28% of CPM for TL carriers.

Smart playbook:

• Use the auto-updating surcharge matrix (see rate calculator in Section 5).

• Cut empty miles 10–15% with ML load matching.

• Shift overnight via After-Hours Load Recoveries for lower line-haul costs.

  
  

3. Congestion & Dwell – 34 mph Bottlenecks, 98-min Stops

2025 stats: Top bottlenecks average 34.2 mph; dwell time sits at 1h 38m.

Smart playbook:

• Reslot drivers dynamically with predictive ETAs.

• Reroute around urban red zones overnight (22:00–04:00).

• Flag stops >120 min and bill detention fees fast.

4. Compliance Complexity – HOS, ELD & Green Mandates

2025 context: Federal 11-hour HOS rules persist; CA’s clean truck quotas now live.

Smart playbook:

• Unified ELD dashboard with auto rule-switching.

• Pulse-check compliance quarterly via email (signup in Section 6).

• Driver alerts: HOS countdown + CARB-compliant parking recs.

  
  

5. Sustainability Pressure – Decarbonize or Lose Freight

Current shift: 22 states enforce carbon targets; near-zero corridors are coming.

Smart playbook:

• Optimize routes, consolidate loads to reduce CO₂.

• Launch pilot routes with HVO/RNG fuels.

• Export Scope-3 reports directly into shipper ESG dashboards.

6. Cargo Theft – $63M Lost in Q1 2025

Trend: 787 incidents logged; direct theft up 29%.

Smart playbook:

• 24/7 geofencing + SMS alerts for breach events.

• Real-time DOT/MC carrier vetting.

• Overnight custody yards for high-value freight.

  
  

7. Volatile Spot Rates – Van Linehaul at $1.66/mi

DAT Index: $1.66/mi (Feb 2025); up only 4¢ from 2019.Smart playbook:

• Hedge with 70% contracts + quarterly mini-bids.

• Use lane scorecards to detect +15¢ spot deltas.

• Batch low-volume tenders for bundle discounts.

How to Put This to Work

Ready to cut cost-per-mile and stabilize margins? Book a 15-minute call with After Hours Dispatch Support. We'll benchmark your CPM vs. 2025 industry averages and identify quick-win savings.

Service Models & When to Use Each (FTL | LTL | 3PL | 4PL)

Scan these four mini-guides to align your freight profile, budget, and service needs with the right model.

One-size-fits-all contracts often leave money on the table.

Full Truckload (FTL) 

Exclusive use of a 48- or 53-ft trailer. Ideal when freight exceeds ≈ approximately 15,000 lb or fills the trailer to capacity.

2025 Snapshot:

• Avg rates: Dry van $2.65/mi, Reefer $3.12, Flatbed $2.93

• 10–15% savings on steady-lane contracts vs. spot

  
  

Best for:

• Time-sensitive launches or recalls

• Fragile or high-value sealed shipments

• Major DC-to-DC transfers with predictable docks

  
  

Watch-outs:

• Deadhead miles spike costs without backhaul

• You pay for the unused cube

  
  

Less-Than-Truckload (LTL)

Shared trailer space, billed by class, weight, and density.

2025 Snapshot:

• Mild 1–3% GRI expected

• Accessorials rising fastest (+8–10% YoY)

• TD Cowen/AFS Index saw a rare 1.3% drop last quarter

  
  

Best for:

• 1–6 pallets (150–10,000 lb)

• Flexible delivery timelines

• Lower-cost SKUs with acceptable handling risk

  
  

Watch-outs:

• July 2025 NMFC reclass could reprice 40%+ of SKUs, audit now

• Break-bulk terminals raise damage risk

  
  

Third-Party Logistics (3PL)

Asset-light providers that manage transportation, warehousing, fulfillment, and reverse logistics.

Why it works:

• Flex capacity without owning assets

• Access to tech (TMS/WMS)

• Volume leverage for better buy rates

  
  

Proof Point: 94% of shippers report positive ROI from 3PLs 

Best for:

• Growing beyond DIY logistics

• Peak season surges

• Nationwide warehousing needs

  
  

Fourth-Party Logistics (4PL)

Non-asset lead logistics provider overseeing strategy, integration, and all 3PL partners, like a control tower.

When to move up:

• Complex multi-modal, multi-region networks

• M&A integrations with legacy system friction

• Board-mandated logistics cost cuts (10%+)

3PL vs 4PL at a glance:

Decision Cheat-Sheet

(Rule of thumb: move “up” the ladder, FTL → LTL → 3PL → 4PL, as complexity and service‑level demands rise.)

Cost Factors & 2025 Rate Benchmarks

Whether you're a shipper, broker, or fleet owner, this is your 2025 cost-per-mile (CPM) playbook.

Sourced from ATRI, EIA, DAT, and TD Cowen/AFS, the data below helps align ops, pricing, and finance on what’s real and what’s still controllable.

What Builds a Dollar of CPM?

2024 all-in average: $2.26/mi (ATRI)

If you're under this on reefer or dry-van lanes, you're likely absorbing cost.

Fuel Price Trajectory

• National diesel (June 23, 2025): $3.775/gal

• Fuel makes up ≈28% of CPM; every 10¢ swing = ±2.8¢/mi

• Regional notes:

  • Gulf Coast: $3.44

  • California: $4.89

    
    

Tip: Sync our Fuel-Surcharge Matrix with the EIA RSS feed for auto-updated invoices every Monday at 4:00 PM ET.

Region & Lane Volatility

Interactive heat map: Hover by state for real-time lane pricing (DAT iQ API).

Accessorials – Silent CPM Killers

• Detention: 4.9% of stops >4 hours

• Lumper/Driver Assist: +8–10% YoY

• Tolls: Fastest-growing expense in 2024 (+6.2%)

  
  

Mitigation: Our Night-Dispatch script checks dwell every 30 mins and auto-triggers EDI 214 at 120 mins for same-day detention billing.

2025 Rate Outlook

How to Use This Data – Quick Checklist

• Sync your fuel surcharge to the EIA weekly diesel

• Re-price lanes when spot deviates ±15¢ from contract

• Auto-escalate detention after 120 minutes

• Run quarterly “rate health” audits, benchmark against $2.26 CPM and +2.2% trend

  
  

Regulation & Compliance Checklist

Non-compliance silently erodes margins. Missed filings, expired ELD certifications, or falling behind on emissions rules can wipe out the savings gained in Sections 3–5.

Use this checklist to verify that your fleet or your carriers are aligned with 2025 federal rules and state-level overlays.

Federal “Must-Have” Rules (2025)

State Overlay: California’s Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF)

Seventeen other states are drafting similar ZEV mandates for 2026 and beyond.

Rules on the Radar (2026–2027)

2025–2027 Compliance Timeline

Fleet Owner Action Checklist

•  Audit your ELD certification monthly; non-compliant devices drop without notice.

•  Flag CA-bound lanes even if origin isn’t in California

•  Update all broker/carrier contracts with 48-hour records clause + $100K bond

•  Flash ECMs to 68 mph now to avoid retrofit chaos

•  Apply early for charging grants. HVIP/IRA 2024 funds ran out in 29 days

  
  

Case Study: 12 % Cost-Per-Mile Reduction for a Mid-Market Retail Shipper

Client profile: A U.S. regional retailer shipping to 92 stores from a central DC. Freight mix is palletised consumer goods; lanes average 620 mi.

The Challenge

• Operating costs are already above the industry average baseline of $2.26 / mi reported by ATRI for 2024

• Overnight pickup windows are frequently missed because the in-house dispatch desk closes at 19:00.

• 19% of the weekly mileage was running empty back to the DC.

  
  

2. Solution Architecture

1. 24/7 Night-Dispatch hand-off: Outsourced after-hours dispatch replaced a rotating in-house night shift. Outsourcing can reduce labour and turnover costs by 20-40% compared to staffing internally.

2. AI-driven dynamic rerouting: Integrated a cloud TMS plug-in that continuously re-optimises loads; studies show AI can trim deadhead up to 20 %

3. Predictive backhaul marketplace: Night-Dispatch agents pre-booked spot freight to fill backhauls, inspired by tactics that saved 358 km/day of deadhead for La Linea SpA

4. Logistics-planning analytics: Weekly KPI reviews adopted ThroughPut AI’s approach, where retailers achieved > 30 % logistics-cost cuts by removing low-value shipments.

   
   

Results After 90 Days

All figures are taken from the client’s TMS export, audited as of June 30, 2025.

Operational Playbook

1. Mirror-hour call – 18:45 hand-off between day and Night-Dispatch for lane status.

2. Dynamic ETA rules – if predicted arrival slips > 15 min, system auto-requests new dock time and updates broker.

3. Backhaul reserve window – Night agents post empty trailers on two spot boards at 22:00, capturing loads others miss.

4. Weekly KPI huddle – 30 min every Monday comparing CPM to ATRI benchmark; green if ≤ $2.20.

   
   

Key Takeaways

• Small changes compound – an 18 % cut in deadhead (about 1,400 mi/week) alone saved $29,000/quarter in fuel + line-haul.

• Round-the-clock dispatch pays for itself – labour savings plus higher OTD covered outsourcing fees within six weeks.

  
  

Data > hunches – Weekly dashboards keep CPM anchored to the ATRI baseline, so overruns are caught quickly.

FAQs